Pot Odds : Calculating Pot Odds
What are Pot Odds and what should you know about them?
Well, Pot Odds is the ratio of what is already in the pot to the amount you would have to bet to stay in the hand.
So, if there are $36 in the pot, and you need to bet $6 to stay in the hand, the pot odds are 36
to 6, or 6 to 1.
Why would you need to know this? In general pot odds may be expressed as a
win-to-loss ratio and may be converted into percentage probabilities using the
formula: win-to-loss odds = win / (win + loss) % probability.
Using Pot Odds
One example of using pot odds is when your hand is not yet the best poker hand in play, but it could be if the right card is dealt. For instance, with four cards on the board (turn) you hold four clubs. The odds of completing the flush on the river are roughly 5 to 1 against you. That means for you to commit money to the stack there should be at least five times the bet amount in the pot. If the bet to you is $2, then there should be at least $10 in the pot to make it worth calling. Similarly if the bet is $50 there should be at least $250 in the pot to make it worth calling.
Suppose there were $120 in the pot when you were making that decision. The odds of landing that club and getting the best hand at the table were 5 to 1. If If the bet was $10 the pot would pay you over 12 to 1 on your bet. That makes calling the bet the right decision to make. You may not land your club and win the hand, but over the long run playing this way will be to your advantage as you will make money.
Another instance of using pot odds is after the river, when the final bet comes to you. If the pot holds $40, and the bet in front of you is $4, you can use pot odds to decide what to do. The pot is laying you Ten to One odds. ($40 against your $4 bet). Even though you feel your opponent may have the better hand, do you think he is ten times more likely to have a better hand? If so, fold. If not, call the bet and see his cards. There are plenty of times at the poker table when you will be asking yourself, "Is it worth staying in this hand?". Being able to use pot odds will help you answer that question correctly more often. Making the right decision will be the difference between winning and losing.
Simple Pot odds
Simple Pot odds which or expressed pot odds apply to a situation when there are no more bets to be made in the hand and you simply have to call a bet. As explained above, Simple pot odds are the ratio of the size of the potential bet to the size of the pot. So if a player is faced with the decision as to whether to call a $50 bet for the chance to win $250 the players odds of winning are 1-to-4 (this does not include the players bet). So if the pot is played 5 times committing $50 each time the odds say that the player will lose 4 times ($200) and win once winning $250 and so breaking even. Note that Simple odds are used when you intend to make a bluff if you intend to give up the chase if called or raised. As such you will more commonly use Simple odds on the river than in post flop play.
Implied Pot Odds
Implied Pot Odds are used when there are more cards to come and so more betting. These odds are used when your hand is an almost certain loser but may improve to be a certain winner (i.e. improving from no pair to a nut flush). A player's implied pot is the current pot plus the value of future bets expected from all opponents that may be won, excluding the player's own bets. When calculating the implied pot you must estimate the bets that you expect your opponents to make. Sounds more tricky than it actually is.
Lets look at an example. I hold Ace (D), King (H) and the flop reads 3 diamonds meaning that i only need one more to make my nut flush. I now am faced with a $5 bet to win a pot of $20 - what do i do? Well lets look at my implied pot. If i call i expect roughly a $10 bet on the turn and river meaning that my implied pot is $40. Now my effective call is $15 ($5 on the flop and $10 on the turn) to $40 (15 / (15 + 40) or 27%. If i was to call the $5 bet i would have a positive expectation as with 2 cards to come i have approximately a 35% chance of hitting my Diamond to make my nuts flush. Now as my implied odds are 27% i am making the right move calling. If my implied odds were less than 27% then i should fold.
Other Relevant Guides
Odds of making your hand
Possible Starting Poker Hands
Poker Hand Rankings
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